Why is Scottish politics important for the North of England?
Westminster politics is enough of a soap opera that you could be forgiven for not paying close attention to the equivalent dramas in Holyrood.
But even for the most die-hard of Eastenders fans, the last few months of episodes for our Neighbours (see what I did there??) to the north have been compelling viewing as Humza Yousaf replaced Nicola Sturgeon.
But, unlike the neatly bordered worlds of Albert Square and Ramsey Street, what happens in Scotland does have an impact elsewhere - even leaving aside the internal struggles and scandals of the SNP.
This is especially true for those of us in the North of England - here are some of those potential impacts, both positive and negative.
Scotland will now draw focus (temporarily at least)
Everything has actually been fairly stable and predictable in Scotland for the last few years. Since Nicola Sturgeon became First Minister following the 2014 Independence Referendum, the SNP has been comfortably the lead party with around 50% of MSPs and a third of the vote in local elections.
A changing of the guard means that all could all be changing too, and with that Scottish politics will draw focus. The new First Minister may come under pressure to call a Scottish Parliamentary election to give himself a clear mandate; a new policy agenda may bring new headlines; Westminster seats may come into play, changing the electoral maths across the UK.
All of this will pull attention which has (for better or worse) been on the North of England, where Brexit, devolution, and the fight for the so-called Red Wall seats have been the main political battlegrounds since the Cameron Government.
But there’s a chance for new coalitions
Holyrood, and the major cities of Edinburgh and Glasgow, are nearer neighbours to northern England than Westminster and London - yet the political and economic ties are under-recognised.
New leadership and new agendas can also bring new opportunities to form coalitions across the Scottish borders. Yousaf has held a number of roles in the Scottish Government - as Cabinet Secretary for Health and for Justice, and as a junior minister for transport and for international development - he should have a broad sense of many of the key issues affecting both his patch and the various mayoralties of the North of England.
A functional and settled Scottish Government has the potential to be a significant ally to devolved regions of Northern England.
(Lose) a testbed…?
Scotland has been the frontrunner on devolution, and occasionally pushes the boundary on policy issues too (recently and notably on gender recognition).
Where Scotland has gone in terms of fiscal devolution - i.e. a degree of flexibility on taxation - the English regions are beginning to push towards. And the single chunk of cash, used to spend on devolved policy areas, determined by the Barnett formula in the case of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, is also the direction of travel for English regions - most notably Greater Manchester and the West Midland in their latest ‘trailblazer’ devolution deals.
A Scottish Parliament that is divided, or which is focused purely on the issue of independence, isn’t pushing forward with deeper, broader devolution, or pushing on with a progressive policy agenda which draws Westminster with it - England’s regions will feel the impact of that.
…or find a proving ground?
As the next few weeks and months play out, we’ll get a sense of how the SNP’s position is holding up - both policy-wise and in the polls.
A strong-ish SNP, and a continuing appetite for pursuing a second independence referendum could push the Westminster-based parties towards greater decentralisation of power and yet deeper devolution.
This will make it far easier for the frontrunners of English regional devolution - a group of which the North East is rapidly becoming one - to push farther too.
Whatever comes, being alive to the changing scenario and able to adapt will allow the North of England, and its businesses, to make the best of the inevitable political upheaval in the next year or eighteen months - both north and south of the border.