Super Majorities & Extinctions
Political commentators and observers are agreed - Labour will win tomorrow’s General Election. Even the Conservatives appear to agree - their recent campaign communications focussing on warnings about how big Labour’s majority could be.
On the question of the scale of majority things are far less certain. The BBC’s poll tracker which includes figures from 19 separate polling companies including Opinium, Redfield & Wilton, Savanta, Survation & YouGov has Labour on 40 points in the final week of campaigning. How this lead relates to seats won is open to interpretation.
BBC poll tracker - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68079726
Don't Call it a ‘Super-Majority’
Pollsters have a Labour majority ranging from around 150 seats up to 400+. Some projections have the Conservatives falling short of 100 seats - an extinction level event claim some hyperbolic interpretations. Others talk of an American style ‘super-majority’ for Labour - not an entirely applicable phrase in the UK but a useful descriptor nonetheless.
Sir Keir yesterday made the case for for a strong mandate to - "seriously change" the country so that people would have "more money in their pockets”.
Meanwhile Rishi Sunak has again warned that if Labour won a big majority - "they will be unchecked and unaccountable".
Does size matter?
The size of the majority WILL make a difference going forward. A new Labour Government that is seen to have under-performed at the polls will feel it’s had its wings clipped. Decisions around policy delivery and governance will feel harder, perhaps more politically risky. By contrast a new Government flying high having delivered the biggest majority in 10, even 20+ years will be emboldened.
This could effect the speed of change. While its always tricky to deliver anything meaningful in terms of policy in the the fabled ‘first 100 days’, a landslide this week will provide the impetus to give it a good try. A huge majority will also trigger a certain degree of internal pressure to go beyond the manifesto pledges. While the Labour manifesto is as the New Statesman describes ‘quietly radical’ - parts of the party will want the leadership to take the mandate and run with it.
5 Bellwether Seats
On election night there will be a number of results to look out for which will signal the scale of Labour’s win. Some of these seats switched to Labour in 1997 but have voted with the Government since 2010. Others have never returned a Labour MP and doing so this time around will signal a huge sea-change indicative of a major landslide.
Swindon North is one of the West of England’s key election battlegrounds between the Conservatives and Labour and a key indicator for how the country votes overall. In every election since 1983 the Wiltshire town has consistently chosen MPs of the party which ends up in government. It is expected to announce it’s result before 2am.
Hexham in Northumberland has never had a Labour MP and has been held by the Conservatives for 100 years. Labour have their eye on the the seat and while it will almost certainly be close, believe they are in with a chance of winning. This is one of the seats Reform are not standing in which will arguably help unify the Conservative vote in the constituency. It could declare as early as 2am on Friday morning but there could be recounts.
Cannock Chase in Staffordshire had one of the largest swings in the country going from a 55% Labour vote in 1997 to a near 70% Conservative vote in 2019. If Labour produce a big enough swing here then it suggests it has re-entered a Blair style victory territory and has won over middle England. Results here aren’t expected until around 4am.
Aldershot, the self proclaimed ‘home of the British Army’ will be one of the first indications that we could be entering ‘biggest post war majority’ territory. Like Hexham it has returned a Conservative MP for the last 100 years. Despite this polling suggests Labour has a reasonable chance in the constituency despite never winning in the constituency before.
Torbay will likely return a result before 3am in the contest that is expected to be a 2 horse race between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrats performance on the night will be critical to the size of the Conservative Party returning to Parliament. The Lib Dems held Torbay back in the 2010s. Retaking the seat would signal a 17-point swing against the Conservatives and suggest further gains for the party as the night progresses.