This years General Election campaign is being fought on revised electoral boundaries.

With many so many constituencies undergoing significant changes since 2019 direct comparisons to the 2019 GE are somewhat problematic. It is still possible however to determine where the key marginals are using current polling and voting behaviour from previous elections. Another key indicator of this is where the party Leaders and big hitters are spending the majority of their time.

So far Labour Leader Keir Starmer has been exclusively focussing his efforts in seats held by other parties - largely the Conservatives. By contrast the PM has visited a series of constituencies so far on the campaign trail all won by the Conservatives in 2019.

We’ve highlighted 10 seats below which were won (notionally in line with revised boundaries) by the Conservatives at the 2019 election:

North East

1.Redcar

Last week the Conservative battle bus launched it’s UK tour in Redcar - a constituency which was taken by the Conservatives as part of the parties major gains in the ‘redwall’. Boris Johnson previously announced in 2019 we will turn Redcar ‘Bluecar’ - and so they did. This time around Labour need a 5.5% swing to retake the seat. (analysis by Michael Thrasher, Sky News election analyst).

2.Blyth & Ashington

The Conservative victory in Blyth Valley 2019 was one of the stand-out results in the party’s efforts in the redwall. Under the boundary review the seat has been split with the new constituency taking in parts of Northumberland previously in Labour held Wansbeck. The Prime Minister visited the area last week to help Conservative candidate and wife of the former Blyth Valley MP launch her campaign. The latest YouGov MRP has Labour on course to win the new seat.

Seat predictions based on YouGov first GE 2024 MRP polling - https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49606-first-yougov-mrp-of-2024-general-election-shows-labour-on-track-to-beat-1997-landslide

North West

3.Bolton North East

In terms of the size of the swing needed to gain the seat - Bolton North East in in the top ten of Labour target constituencies requiring a swing of just (1.28%) In 2019 Conservative Mark Logan won by just 378 votes in Bolton but is not seeking re-election this year having announced last week that he would stand down and back Labour instead. Prior to 2019 Labour had held the seat since 1997. The Conservatives also won control of the council in 2019 but this has since reverted back to Labour.

4.Bury North

Bury North and Bury South have both been named as two of the most important areas in the country for the Labour Party to secure votes. Bury North’s James Daly, who beat Labour opponent James Frith by just 105 votes – making his seat the most marginal in the country. According to Thrasher’s analysis of notional 2019 results on the new constituency boundaries the Labour Party would need just a 1.20% swing to gain the Bury North from the Conservatives.

South West

5.St Ives

The south west of the country is likely to be one of the major stories of the election with the Liberal Democrats focussing campaign effort and resources on some key marginal constituencies in the region. St Ives will see two former MPs (Conservative and Lib Dem) fighting it out for the seat. Derek Thomas, from the Conservative Party, held the seat since 2015. Liberal Democrat opponent Andrew George was MP from 1997 to 2015. The seat has a history of marginal victories with the Conservative candidate winning by just 312 votes last time around.

6.Honiton & Sidmouth

Recent polling from the You Gov MRP poll shows the Lib Dem slightly ahead in the newly formed constituency in East Devon. As a brand new constituency there is no incumbent and comparisons to earlier elections prove tricky - it includes areas from the former Conservative held East Devon and Lib Dem held Tiverton and Honiton constituencies. Both former MPs (Con and Lib Dem) will be battling it out for the one seat.

7.Devon Central

Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride is contesting the Devon seat on behalf of the Conservatives and is thus far the ONLY cabinet member to have welcomed the PM on a campaign visit. In 2019 Stride won the seat with an impressive majority of over 15,000.

Greater London

8.Wimbledon

The Conservatives have held Wimbledon since 2005 but won in 2019 with the slimmest of majorities with the Liberal Democrats eating up a large proportion of their voteshare. The Lib Dem turnout was buoyed by an anti-Brexit vote in an area where the majority of people voted to remain in the European Union. The Liberal Democrats have Wimbledon as 3rd in their target seat list and their hopes in the area were further boosted by the Conservative MP’s decision not to contest the seat this time around. Both the Prime Minister and Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey have spent time in the constituency since the election was called.

9.Harrow East

Harrow East has long been a key marginal seat in the Capital. Of the constituencies in the capital won by the Conservatives at the 2019 general election, more than half have majorities of less than 10,000 votes, compared to just over a quarter of the seats held by Labour. In 2019 the Conservatives won the seat with a comfortable majority of over 8,000 seats. Despite this the Labour Party has the seat in it’s top 100 target constituencies and current You Gov polling has Labour’s Primesh Patel on course to win.

West Midlands

10.Cannock Chase

A recent Sky News/YouGov poll showed Conservative support in a number of seats that delivered Boris Johnson’s 2019 victory being overturned by Labour. The largest of these swings is predicted to take place in Cannock Chase where the Prime Minister visited on 24 May as the final stop of his initial UK election tour.