Local Election Results - 2024

All political party’s go into polling day seeking to manage expectations. The Conservatives sought to downplay the likelihood of success at what was always going to be a very difficult set local and mayoral elections - ultimately  the results proved even worse for the party with the loss of all but 1 mayoral authority and hundreds of council seats.

Coming out of the election period the Conservatives will point to the National Equivalent Vote (NEV) projection which puts their vote share just 7 points behind Labour in a General Election. These numbers must be treated with caution - last week’s elections do not take into account votes in Scotland or NI nor do they account for the difference in individual’s voting preferences at a General Election.

Labour’s results across the by-election in Blackpool, at the council elections and in Mayoral contests are a clear demonstration that the party’s efforts to grow support and vote-share are increasingly efficient - delivering key wins in areas necessary to deliver a majority at a General Election.  The success of the Greens and Independents at this election will be something Labour Party will be mindful of going into a national vote.

The Liberal Democrats have made decent progress in the ‘blue wall’ - namely traditionally Conservative voting areas in the south. Following this set of elections the party is now second overall in terms of number of councillors putting the Conservatives into third place. The Lib Dems have made no bones about targeting its resource in areas they are looking to win at a General Election and saw this pay off - in Woking for example which is in Surrey Constituency (a Lib Dem target seat) the party now have 24 seats while the Conservatives are down to zero.

Council Results

Local elections across England saw individual seats contested in 107 authority areas.  Labour now control 51 of the 107 councils, the Lib Dems 12, Conservatives six and independents one, with 37 under no overall control.

In total the Conservative Party lost approximately half the seats it went into the election defending. The party ended the weekend down 474 seats and having lost control of 10 Councils.

In contrast Labour gained 185 councillors and took control of 8 Councils including in places like Hartlepool which was both symbolically and strategically important for the party. Labour’s failure to win the Hartlepool by-election in 2021 was very damaging for the party and the leadership with Starmer admitting he considered resigning as a result.

The Liberal Democrats took an additional 104 council seats taking their total numbers to 522 and won control of 2 additional councils - Dorset and Tunbridge Wells. The strategy of targeting key ‘blue wall’ seats appears to paying off at least in part, with gains at these elections despite no overall uplift in their national polling (remaining steady at around 10%).

The Green Party had a positive showing securing its highest ever number of elected councillors - increasing its presence locally to 812 elected members after gaining 74 seats. In Bristol the Greens are now the largest party albeit they fell 2 seats short of forming a majority.

Mayoral Results

The move towards greater devolution took another step forward with mayoral elections in 9 devolved combined/city region authorities as well as in London. Prior to the elections there were 6 existing regional mayoral authorities. Of these Labour held 5 (incl London) and the Conservatives had 2. Three new mayoral authorities elected Mayors in this month’s elections.

Labour made substantial gains and now hold 9 of the 10 mayoralties with Conservative Ben Houchen holding on in Tees Valley albeit with a reduced majority. Nationally all eyes were on the West Midlands where Labour’s Richard Parker beat Andy Street (Con) by the tightest of margins (1508 votes).

The fact that the Conservatives managed to hold Tees Valley has been much heralded by Number 10 - queue the Prime Minister’s visit to Teesside Airport with re-elected Mayor Ben Houchen just hours after the announcement of the results. Houchen did however see his majority slashed with his vote share down from more than 70% last time around to 53% in this election.

Elsewhere Labour pulled off a surprising result winning in York and North Yorkshire - a new devolved regional mayoral authority. The patch covers Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Richmond constituency and given the voting profile of the area in recent years was largely expected to be a much closer result, if not an outright Conservative win.

PCC Results

In the elections this year 36 Police and Crime Commissioners were elected. The Conservatives won in 19 areas, Labour in 17 and there was one Plaid Cymru PPC elected in Wales.  This year the PPC contests were the only elections to take place in Wales.

While the Conservatives ended the night with the most, Labour was the only party to make gains int he elections, taking 10 PPCs from the Conservatives. In five police force areas (greyed out on map)  the powers of the PPC are also held by the Mayor. All of these Mayoral positions were contested this year and won by Labour.

When the posts were first introduced in 2012 by David Cameron’s administration there was a relatively high number of Independent PPCs elected - 12 at the first election. Most of these candidates had previously worked in the criminal justice system at a high level and had significant experience.  The position has become increasingly political and in  this set of elections and the ones prior in 2021 no Independent PPCs were elected at all.