Building on our past for a greener future

Last week saw the release of the latest figures on greenhouse gas emissions at a regional level, in this blog our managing director Mark Stephenson explores the picture for the North East.

There’s no greater challenge facing humanity than dealing with our changing climate, and no greater goal to meet than net zero.

As a nation, we’re committed to being net zero by 2050 - that is, to reducing our carbon emissions as far as possible, and to dealing with the remainder through technology like carbon capture or through natural solutions like forests.

Last week, the latest set of data covering greenhouse gas emissions at a local and regional level was published.

Covering 2021, the story was a tick upwards of about 5% compared to 2020 - an expected outcome of the loosening of restrictions after the Covid pandemic lockdowns beginning in March 2020.

Across the country, in 2021 the three main emitters of greenhouse gasses are transport (28% of total emissions), the domestic sector (24%) and industry (21%).

Falling emissions since 2005

While year on year figures don’t tell us much, looking back to 2005 we can see a sustained downward trend in emissions - a fall of 39% across the UK, with the North East (including the Tees Valley) seeing the largest fall - 63%.

Chart showing per capita emissions - NE vs UK

It’s understandable for a region like the North East - which traditionally has a large manufacturing and industrial base - to have larger per capita emissions than somewhere where the service sector reigns supreme. Hence why, in 2021, London emitted 3.4 tonnes of carbon per capita, compared to 5.7 tonnes in the North East.

What you can see from the chart above though, is that the North East’s 63% decrease in emissions since 2005 has seen its per capita figure fall into line with the national average - and it’s been there or thereabouts since 2016, whilst continuing to fall.

A story of industrial decline

Those falling emissions are undeniably a good thing, and something worth celebrating.

But - and isn’t there always a but - that doesn’t mean the North East has necessarily got the transition to a greener economy cracked or that the bulk of the hard work is done.

In its statistical report on the latest data, the ONS makes an important point - the North East is the region with the largest fall in emissions since 2005, but that’s happened, in part, due to industrial closures.

Chart showing emissions from North East large industrial installations since 2005

The above chart plots the carbon emissions of large industrial installations in the North East - the fall is significant, and the trend is a more acute version of the overall North East one.

It aligns with overall economic performance - there’s a steep fall following the 2008/9 financial crisis, and another fall that finds its level around the time of the 2016 EU referendum.

The North East might be the most obvious example of this, but it won’t be the only part of the country going through this transition.

And therein lies the next challenge.

If the progress has been made - at least in part - through economic loss, how can we turn the UK’s continued drive towards net zero into an economic gain for the parts of the country which need it?

The answer is in building on our collective industrial legacy - there remain the sites, skills and infrastructure to deliver the innovations which will enable a greener economy.

Many of the sectors which will unlock the next stages of the UK’s move towards net zero are the very same ones which are recognised as areas of high growth potential in places like the North East.

There’s advances in the automotive sector, efforts in the cyclical economy, and of course the potential for renewables and clean energy generation.

That industrial legacy is an important asset to regions like the North East, our economic geography is built around achieving large-scale industrial impact, and the infrastructure that has built up over the past hundred years enables that.

Whether it’s road and rail links, colleges and universities, or the grid network which allows power to move around the country, the building blocks are there - we just need the strategic vision to deliver what’s needed.